With the reopening of most businesses and public spaces, many people, students included, have been much more relaxed with social distancing. COVID-19 has taken a backseat to other pressing national issues, and it seems students are more comfortable than ever meeting up with their friends, maskless.
This revealed a trend of mistrust in local Safer at Home guidelines and doubt towards the severity of COVID-19. Such mistrust in public health measures is still dangerous. We all should still do our best to respect social distancing guidelines to progress through the Safer at Home stages sooner.
Yes, we’ve all heard the comparisons of COVID-19 to the flu. Many ask, why did we shut down life as we know it for COVID-19 when the seasonal flu is similar, if not worse? The fact of the matter is, the LAC Department of Public Health reported 125 influenza-associated deaths for the 2018-2019 season, with 289 deaths being the largest number in a single season since 2013. Compare that to over 2,300 COVID-19-associated deaths in L.A. since the first death in March. Nationally, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that from October 2019 to April 2020, the U.S. had 62,000 flu deaths. Compare that to the CDC’s count of over 107,000 COVID-19 deaths since February alone.
Unfortunately, many have supported the rumor that the CDC inflates the number of COVID-19 deaths to spread fear. The CDC has stated that they count both confirmed and probable COVID-19 deaths. This seems to support the opposition’s stance; if COVID-19 deaths don’t require laboratory testing to be counted, then the gap between COVID-19 and flu deaths may be too small to justify the current Safer at Home order.
However, the CDC identifies probable deaths with combinations of clinical criteria, epidemiological evidence and presumptive laboratory testing. According to emergency physician Erica E. Remer for the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, “a positive test at the local or state level is considered ‘presumptive,’ … ‘Presumptive’ is not an uncertain diagnosis qualifier.” The CDC uses much compelling evidence to count a death as probable in the first place. There is no conspiracy aimed to overcount COVID-19 deaths. Ultimately, COVID-19 is statistically more significant of a public health problem than the seasonal flu, and we should treat it as such.
With this data, I don’t intend to scare you into locking down in your house. On the contrary, going outdoors is now more important than ever for our mental and physical health, and the Safer at Home order still allows outdoor active recreation. Rather, I want to point out that the statistics do support the need for precautions like maintaining six feet of distance and wearing masks.
As of May 8, L.A. moved onto Stage Two of the five planned stages for reopening. Additionally, as of May 26, many retail shops have resumed business and many public facilities have reopened, thanks to key signs of recovery including stabilizing hospitalization and mortality rates and sufficient hospital and ICU beds. One might argue that with the return of so many businesses, Angelenos have essentially mitigated much of the risk of COVID-19, and that distancing and mask guidelines are unnecessary. However, it is with continued distancing that we will be able to actually reduce the threat posed. The County DHS COVID-19 Predictive Modeling Team showed that since physical distancing began, the R0, the basic reproduction number, of COVID-19 has dropped from about 3.5 to under 1.0. Distancing works, and allowing the R0 number to increase again by lifting distancing measures will erase much of our progress.
As we move forward through the stages of the Safer at Home order, many aspects of high school life will return. With proper distancing, we move closer to the return of gatherings, of banquets, concerts and even graduation.
More importantly, when we respect distancing guidelines, we move towards recovery for much of L.A. When we distance ourselves, we slow disease spread for essential workers who have little choice in going to work. We prevent hospital surges that kill more than just those with COVID-19. And we ensure that more of our vulnerable population will experience the freedom of gatherings and social closeness in the future.